Jay Ulfelder

Political science Ph.D. (Stanford 1997), research director for the US government-funded Political Instability Task Force (2001-2011), Good Judgment Project superforcaster.

Tysons, VA 7 posts
An Anomaly in Armenia: Now what?

An Anomaly in Armenia: Now what?

After a successful protest movement unseats Sargsyan, what will happen next in Armenia?…


Apr 24, 2018
Tenure track: China's term-limit change in comparative perspective

Tenure track: China's term-limit change in comparative perspective

This weekend, China's legislature scrapped a 1982 rule that limits the country's presidents to two consecutive five-year terms in office.…


Mar 12, 2018
U.N. Security Council resolutions by the numbers

U.N. Security Council resolutions by the numbers

On February 24, 2018, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously adopted a resolution demanding a nationwide ceasefire and the…


Feb 27, 2018
Global: More Democracy, Less Freedom

Global: More Democracy, Less Freedom

Has the world taken an authoritarian turn, or is talk of a democratic recession overblown? Earlier this week, Freedom House…


Jan 19, 2018
`Tis the season...for instability in Africa?

`Tis the season...for instability in Africa?

For some things, there really is a season, and a smattering of memorable events suggests that political instability in Africa…


Jan 06, 2018
Where have all the good coups gone?

Where have all the good coups gone?

Shifts in the international system have not rendered coups obsolete, but they have helped make them rarer.…


Dec 12, 2017
Plotting Zimbabwe's post-coup trajectory

Plotting Zimbabwe's post-coup trajectory

The Koto Analogy Engine offers a rigorous but efficient way to take the outside view on situations like the one in Zimbabwe right now.…


Nov 29, 2017