Jay Ulfelder

Political science Ph.D. (Stanford 1997), research director for the US government-funded Political Instability Task Force (2001-2011), Good Judgment Project superforcaster.

Tysons, VA 11 posts
Protest Hotspots in 2018

Protest Hotspots in 2018

Seven cases from 2018 show how Kensho’s "protest" topic tag can be used to spot new waves of social unrest as they emerge, and to track the dynamics of ongoing ones.…


Jan 16, 2019
A Coup-Free Year

A Coup-Free Year

Low counts in recent years are part of a long-term decline in the frequency of coup attempts worldwide.…


Dec 31, 2018
Tracking the Politics of Migration in Europe with NLP and Machine Learning

Tracking the Politics of Migration in Europe with NLP and Machine Learning

Kensho’s topic trend scores offer another way to track the salience of political issues within and across countries.…


Dec 27, 2018
Impeachment: A Growing Phenomenon in an Increasingly Democratic World

Impeachment: A Growing Phenomenon in an Increasingly Democratic World

If it seems like impeachment has made the news more often of late, that’s true, and not just in…


Jun 12, 2018
An Anomaly in Armenia: Now what?

An Anomaly in Armenia: Now what?

After a successful protest movement unseats Sargsyan, what will happen next in Armenia?…


Apr 24, 2018
Tenure track: China's term-limit change in comparative perspective

Tenure track: China's term-limit change in comparative perspective

This weekend, China's legislature scrapped a 1982 rule that limits the country's presidents to two consecutive five-year terms in office.…


Mar 12, 2018
U.N. Security Council resolutions by the numbers

U.N. Security Council resolutions by the numbers

On February 24, 2018, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously adopted a resolution demanding a nationwide ceasefire and the…


Feb 27, 2018
Global: More Democracy, Less Freedom

Global: More Democracy, Less Freedom

Has the world taken an authoritarian turn, or is talk of a democratic recession overblown? Earlier this week, Freedom House…


Jan 19, 2018
`Tis the season...for instability in Africa?

`Tis the season...for instability in Africa?

For some things, there really is a season, and a smattering of memorable events suggests that political instability in Africa…


Jan 06, 2018